Showing posts with label Europe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Europe. Show all posts

Wednesday, 26 October 2011

Big banks under pressure in Europe crisis (AP)

BRUSSELS – Big banks found themselves under pressure in Europe's debt crisis Saturday, with finance chiefs pushing them to raise billions of euros in capital and accept huge losses on Greek bonds they hold.

The continent's biggest financial institutions were at the center of talks as leaders entered marathon negotiations in Brussels, at the end of which they have promised to present a comprehensive plan to take Europe out of its crippling debt crisis.

"Between now and Wednesday we have to find a solution, a structural solution, an ambitious solution and a definitive solution," French President Nicolas Sarkozy said as he arrived in Brussels. "There's no other choice."

In addition to new financing for Greece, leaders want to make the banking sector fit to sustain worsening market turmoil and turn their bailout fund into a strong safety net that will stop big economies like Italy and Spain from falling into the same debt trap that has already snapped Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

But before the final deadline on Wednesday, they have to overcome many obstacles.

On Saturday, the finance ministers of the 27-country European Union decided to force the bloc's biggest banks to substantially increase their capital buffers — an important move to ensure that they are strong enough to withstand the panic that a steep cut to Greece's debt could trigger on financial markets.

A European official said the new capital rules would force banks to raise just over euro100 billion ($140 billion), but finance ministers did not provide details on their decision. The official was speaking on condition of anonymity because it had been agreed to let leaders unveil the deal at their first summit Sunday.

"We have made real progress and have come to important decisions on strengthening European banks," George Osborne, the U.K.'s chancellor of the exchequer, said as he left Saturday's meeting.

The deal on banks was likely to be the only major breakthrough ready to announce on Sunday, leaving many important decisions and negotiations to be completed by Wednesday night.

On Friday, the first day of the marathon talks, the finance ministers of the 17 countries that use the euro — and which have found themselves at the center of the crisis because of the currency they share — agreed to demand Greece's private creditors take big losses on their bondholdings.

But they still have get the banks to come along and convince them that the cuts are the best way to ensure that Athens can eventually repay its remaining debts.

The picture in Greece, whose troubles kicked off the crisis almost two years ago, is bleaker than ever. A new report from Athens' international debt inspectors — the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund — proved that a preliminary deal for a second package of rescue loans reached in July is already obsolete.

That plan would have seen banks and other private investors take losses of some 21 percent on their Greek bond holdings, while the eurozone and the IMF were to provide an extra euro109 billion ($150 billion) in bailout loans.

But the report showed that in the past three months Greece's economic situation has deteriorated so dramatically that for the bank deal to remain in place, the official sector would have to provide some euro252 billion ($347 billion) in loans. Alternatively, to keep official loans at euro109 billion ($150 billion), banks would have to accept cuts of about 60 percent to the value of their Greek bonds.

"I believe we are now arriving at a more realistic view of the situation in Greece," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the country that has long been advocating a more radical solution to Athens' problems.

But Merkel and her eurozone counterpart were on for tough negotiations with the banks.

Charles Dallara, who has been representing private investors in the talks with the eurozone, said Saturday that negotiations that carried on sporadically throughout Saturday were making only slow progress.

"We're nowhere near a deal," he told The Associated Press in an interview.

Dallara, the managing director of the Institute of International Finance — the world's biggest bank lobbying group — said current plans to cut Greece's debt would leave the country as "a ward of Europe" for years.

He declined to say how much in losses banks would be willing to accept, saying only "we would be open to an approach that involves additional efforts from everyone."

The eurozone has been working hard to reach a voluntary agreement with banks, rather than forcing losses onto the lenders, because that could avoid triggering billions of euros on payout for bond insurance and could destabilize markets even further.

However, in recent weeks some officials have no longer insisted that the deal remain voluntary.

Agreement on arguably the most important measure in the crisis plan remained even more elusive Saturday: boosting the firepower of the currency union's euro440 billion ($600 billion) bailout.

Increasing the effectiveness of the fund — called the European Financial Stability Facility — is meant to help prevent larger economies like Italy and Spain from being dragged into the crisis. At the same time, the EFSF may be asked to help governments shore up their banks if they can't raise the necessary funds on financial markets.

But Germany and France still disagree over how to give the EFSF more firepower. France wants the fund to be allowed to tap the ECB's massive cash reserves — an option that Germany rejects. Weaker economies, meanwhile, are wary of signing up to the other two parts of the grand plan — bigger bank capital and cuts to Greece's debt — without assurance that sufficient buffers are in place.

___

Sarah DiLorenzo, Elena Becatoros, Raf Casert and Slobodan Lekic in Brussels contributed to this story.

Saturday, 22 October 2011

Wall St. edges higher; Europe anxiety remains (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks ended with modest gains on Thursday, shifting back and forth on incremental developments in Europe where leaders sought to reassure investors that a solution to the debt crisis would come soon.

The S&P has alternated gains and losses for seven days at the close and has kept to a tight range as markets watch for the latest news out of Europe.

Germany and France released a statement on Thursday saying leaders would now hold two summits to discuss the debt crisis, with a solution in place by Wednesday's second meeting.

"The statement was enough for us to come off the lows, but there is still a long way to go," said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners LLC in New York.

Market anxiety remained elevated. The CBOE Volatility Index VIX (.VIX), Wall Street's "fear gauge," rose more than 1 percent to near 35, extending gains after rising nearly 10 percent on Wednesday.

Supporting the market, U.S. economic data showed factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region rebounded in October while a separate report showed U.S. jobless claims fell last week.

On the negative side, other data showed a drop in sales of existing-homes last month and only a small rise in a gauge of future growth.

Financial and materials stocks were the day's top gainers. The S&P 500 financial sector index (.GSPF) rose 1.8 percent and materials (.GSPM) climbed 1 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) ended up 37.16 points, or 0.32 percent, at 11,541.78. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) was up 5.51 points, or 0.46 percent, at 1,215.39. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) was down 5.42 points, or 0.21 percent, at 2,598.62.

Progress by EU leaders toward a solution is considered vital for Wall Street stocks to break out of their trading range.

The S&P 500 has struggled after reaching the top end of a two-month trading range at around the 1,230-1,250 level.

Investors are also closely watching the developing U.S. earnings season. According to Thomson Reuters data, of the 109 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings, 70 percent have topped analysts' expectations.

After the closing bell, Microsoft shares (MSFT.O) fell 0.5 percent to $26.87 following quarterly results. During regular trading Microsoft finished at $27.04, down 0.3 percent.

Ingersoll Rand Plc (IR.N) posted lower quarterly earnings, and its fourth-quarter profit forecast fell short of some Wall Street estimates, due to depressed housing and consumer markets, sending shares down 7.9 percent to $27.38.

Polycom Inc (PLCM.O) fell more than 25 percent to $16.33 and weighed on the Nasdaq after the videoconferencing company reported quarterly revenue well below market expectations. The NYSEArca networking index (.NWX) lost 1.8 percent.

Trading volume was about 7.8 billion shares on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq, below this year's daily average of about 8 billion.

On the NYSE, advancers beat decliners by a ratio of three to two, while on the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers by a ratio of 12 to 11.

(Reporting by Angela Moon, Editing by Kenneth Barry)

Thursday, 13 October 2011

Earnings on deck as Europe eyed (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Investors tiring of the euro zone's debt crisis dragging the market all over the place are hoping to focus on something else next week -- earnings.

But will third-quarter results be enough to drive the S&P 500 higher? Or will Europe's woes get in the way?

The unofficial start of earnings season begins on Tuesday, when Dow component Alcoa Inc (AA.N) reports third-quarter results after the close of trading.

The earnings and guidance that may follow could give investors some clues on the health of the global economy, including any impact the euro-zone debt crisis has had and might continue to have on profits.

But even if earnings paint a rosier picture than anticipated, stocks may face a stiff test in climbing much further, as analysts pointed to the declining 50-day moving average as a key resistance point that could limit gains. That level now sits around 1,178.

This week's sharp gains were built on improved hopes that European officials will get a handle on the euro-zone debt crisis. That fed a massive bout of short-covering as those betting against stocks were forced to buy shares to avoid losing money.

The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX)(.INX) rose 2.1 percent for the week, buoyed by a 6 percent jump mid-week, as it appeared plans in the euro zone to get a grip on the debt crisis were moving forward. The region remains a wild card, which could cause any gains to quickly vanish.

"For the next three weeks, in this country, earnings will be the focus and the subplot is going to be Europe -- Europe is always going to be just under the surface," said Ken Polcari, managing director at ICAP Equities in New York.

"But if all of a sudden in the middle of next week, some catastrophe happens in Europe, the focus is immediately going to be headline driven and goes back to Europe."

Other companies expected to post quarterly results next week include PepsiCo Inc (PEP.N), tech giant Google Inc (GOOG.O), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and toy maker Mattel Inc (MAT.O).

KEEPING THE BAR LOW

Clouding the picture for profits is the fact that many earnings estimates have been trimmed by analysts in light of the turmoil in Europe, a staggering global economy and other events which resulted in a more cautious forecast.

"You've got to remember what was going on in July with the debt-ceiling crisis, credit default -- companies were not willing to go out on a limb and make any big expectations," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. in San Francisco.

"So they were conservative going in, and we have not seen a whole lot of downward revisions, which suggests companies are probably going to be able to make those numbers."

The economic calendar for next week includes the FOMC minutes from the two-day meeting in late September, along with import prices and retail sales for September, in addition to the preliminary reading on October consumer sentiment from the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan surveys.

Economic data of late has been better than expected, helping to quell fears that the economy was headed for a double-dip recession. Once again, that leaves the euro-zone crisis as a potential land mine to disrupt a slow move higher.

"The reason we have lifted in the past week is the rhetoric has improved and we are seeing progress, not necessarily a plan, but you are getting countries to admit to the problem, and that is a step in the right direction -- you have to seek help before you can get help," Pado said.

"That is all we really need in order to get beyond this, and start focusing on the future and focusing on our own data. We have plenty of data that suggests slow growth, but nothing that suggests waving the red flag like a crazy person saying, 'How can you not see this?'"

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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